GBP/USD is the most liquid currency pair in the world and is highly popular with the currency traders. 90% of the global currency trading is pure speculation by the market players. Why is GBP so popular with the currency traders? What are the strength and weakness of GBP? Let’s discuss the currency profile of GBP. Another name for the British Pound (GBP) is Pound Sterling. GBP is also known as the Cable. This name most probably struck in the early part of the twentieth century when most of the global trading used to be done through GBP via telex machines run on the cables. GBP used to be the international reserve currency of choice in those days. United Kingdom (UK) is the fourth largest economy in the world. UK has a service oriented economy with manufacturing representing a small part of GDP. Manufacturing is only equivalent to one fifth of GDP.
London is still the forex center of the world. New York comes after London in the daily market turnover in forex. The main reasons that London has a higher percentage of trade is that it has always been a financial center and also because of time zones. The London market starts between 7am and 8am, which is the end of the trading day for Asia. Just as the Banks in London are beginning to open at 8am they can deal with other traders in Tokyo, Hong Kong or Singapore whose trading day is just coming to a close. During the later part of the trading day in London, the US market opens up and so catches a healthy portion of that market as well. London Stock Exchange is still the second most important stock exchange in the world after the New York Stock Exchange. The British capital market systems are one of the most developed in the world and as a result finance and banking has become a strong contributor to the GDP.
UK has large reserves of oil and gas in its North Sea. Offshore drilling has made the energy production industry account for 10% of GDP which is one of the highest shares of any industrialized nation. UK is the largest producer and exporter of natural gas to EU although majority of UK GDP is from services.
Trade deficit is an important economic indicator for determining the strength or weakness of a currency. Overall, UK is a net importer of goods with a consistent trade deficit. Increases in energy prices such as oil will significantly benefit the large number of UK oil exporters. This is important for forex traders as energy prices are positively correlated with GBP.
The two main trading partners for UK are the EU and the US. The United States on an individual basis still remains UK’s largest trading partner. However, the largest trading partner of UK is the EU. Trade between UK and EU accounts for almost 50% of UK imports and exports activities!
Trade surplus or the trade deficit is determined by the difference between the exports and the imports of a particular country. The leading import sources for UK are France, United States, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The leading exports markets for UK exporters are the France, Germany, Ireland, United States and the Netherlands.
UK had refused to accept Euro when it was introduced keeping the option open to adopt it in the distant future. UK had rejected adopting Euro as its currency in June 2003.The possibility of Euro adoption will still be in the backs of minds of GBP traders for many years to come. Now, it will have significant ramifications for its economy if UK decides to join European Monetary Union (EMU).
One of the primary arguments used against adopting the Euro is that UK has sound macroeconomic policies that have worked very well for the country. The most important of these ramifications is the adjustment of UK interest rate with the Eurozone interest rate in case UK decides to join EMU.
Right now Brits are not in favor of a Euro entry. There are many arguments in favor of Euro entry and many against.UK is a highly political country with government officials highly concerned about the voter approval ratings. The voter opinion can change overtime. However, the likelihood of EMU entry will decline if the voters do not support Euro entry.
Bank of England:
The monetary policy of UK is under the control of The Bank of England (BOE). BOE is the UK’s central bank. BOE is one of the oldest central banks in the world. The Monetary Policy Committee is the nine member committee that sets the monetary policy for UK. The committee was granted operational independence in 1997. It consists of a governor, two deputy governor, two executive directors of the central bank and four outside experts.
Controlling inflation is the primary responsibility of almost all the central banks in the world. Right now the global economy is in recession and there is a danger of deflation instead of inflation. This is also the job of the central bank to control deflation as deflation can erode the value of assets. In UK, the Chancellor of the Exchequer still determines the inflation target for the economy. The monetary policy is dictated by the inflation target set by the Treasury Chancellor despite the independence of the Bank of England (BOE). BOE has the power to change interest rates to levels that it believes will allow it to meet this target.
You must have heard about George Soros who is famously known as the, “Man who had broken the Bank of England.” How did he form his opinion about the inability of Great Britain to say within the EMU in the early part of 1990s? By watching the policy statements of MPC! MPC meetings are held on a monthly basis and are closely followed by changes in the monetary policy including changes in the interest rates. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings are closely followed by the professional forex traders all over the world as GBP is a highly popular currency among the traders.
Now closely following what happens before and after these meeting is the job of many professional forex traders who trade GBP heavily. They can’t risk the chance of being taken by sudden surprises. Before each meeting, the market guesses the likely outcome. After each MPC meeting, MPC issues statements. These statements are compared with the expectations the market had. Any deviation is the cause of major volatility in the pairs involving GBP. These statements are very important for GBP traders. A Quarterly Inflation Report detailing the MPC’s forecasts for the next two years of growth and inflation and its justification for its policy movements is also published.
BOE issues a number of more reports that are frequently used by market analyst to form their bias about GBP. The Quarterly Bulletin is another publication. It provides information for the past monetary policy movements and analysis of international economic scene and its impact on the British economy. All of these reports are highly informative for professional forex traders who trade GBP heavily.
Bank repo rate is the overnight lending rate that the banks charge each other. Bank repo rate is the key rate used in the monetary policy to achieve the Treasury’s target inflation rate. The main policy tools used by MPC and BOE are the Bank Repo Rate and the Open Market Operations.
Bank repo rate is the short term interest rate that eventually sets in motions changes in the other short term and long term interest rates in the market. However, there is always a time lag between the policy announcement and the anticipated change in the market interest rates. It maybe a few months to a year! Changes to the bank repo rate affect the commercial banks interest rates for its savers and borrowers. Bank repo rate is set by the BOE for its own operations in the market such as the short term lending activities.
When the economy is overheating, the central bank tries to cool it down by increasing the interest rte. An increase in the Bank Repo Rate means BOE wants to curb the inflation. A When the economy slumps into a recession just like what has happened currently, the central banks will try to lower interest rates to promote more economic activity so that the economy starts expanding again. Decrease in the interest rate would be to stimulate growth and expansion. Changes in the bank repo rate changes the commercial interest rates. In turn these commercial interest rates will affect spending and output in the economy and eventually the costs and prices.
Open market operations means buying or selling of government securities in the open market. Open market operations are done by the BOE to achieve its targeted bank rep rate. While assuring adequate liquidity in the market and continued stability in the banking system, the goal of the open market operations is to implement the changes in the bank repo rate.
The present financial crisis has been very severe. It started in the US sub-prime markets but eventually UK economy also suffered tremendously from it. Many UK banks had heavily invested in the US mortgage securities. Now it just shows how the individual economies are interlinked in this global economy now. Both the bank repo rate and the open market operations are used by the BOE to achieve its broad monetary policy objective. The three main objective of the BOE are to maintain the stability of the financial system, maintain the integrity and value of GBP and seeking to ensure the effectiveness of the UK financial services. These objectives are very important for the BOE to maintain in the present global financial crisis.
The United Kingdom is a pivotal nation because it bridges the economical, geographical, and ideological divide between the United States and Europe. The monetary policy objectives are met primarily through the open market operations. In order to ensure liquidity in the economy, BOE daily conducts open market operations to buy or sell short term fixed income government instruments. BOE can conduct additional overnight operations as well if this is not sufficient to meet the liquidity needs.
This is a globalized economy. Disturbances that start from outside can quickly become a headache for the Central Banks somewhere else. Oil prices jumped skyward in the early part of 2008. The GBP can be affected more directly by oil prices than other currencies as the United Kingdom is an oil producer. However, the relationship between oil and the GBP is fading because production in the United Kingdom’s North Sea oil fields is steadily decreasing.
UK is the bridge between US and EU. UK tends to share a more common set of views with the United States. In the present financial crisis, both the US and UK government had worked closely to avoid a meltdown in the capital markets. Economically, the United Kingdom is more free-market oriented than Europe. However at the same time, given its history and its geography, the United Kingdom can’t totally disassociate itself from Europe. The upshot is a currency that is affected by politics at home and on the two continents to which its destiny is so closely related.
6% of the all the global currency trading involves GBP as either the base or counter currency. The GBP/USD is one of the most liquid currency pairs in the world. The British Pound GBP is active against the dollar and the euro, offering good opportunities to trade both pairs (GBP/USD and USD/GBP).
The recent Financial Service Act has made the London capital markets one of the most efficient in the world. US capital markets still have oversight and regulatory confusions. This makes London an important destination for many foreign investors. One of the reasons for GBP liquidity is the country’s highly developed capital markets. GBP is also in the four most traded major currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF in the world.
Many hedge funds are located in London. UK is an important foreign investment destination. Many foreign investors seeking to diversify their investment other than the United States send their funds to the UK. Foreigner investors need to convert their local currency into GBP in order to create these investments.
A few years ago, GBP had one of the highest interest rates in the developed countries. Although Australia and New Zealand had still higher interest rates but their financial markets are not as well developed as UK. GBP was full of speculators one to two years back.
Carry trading is a long term fundamental trading strategy that takes advantage of the interest rate differentials between the two currencies as well as price appreciation in the currency pair. Carry trading was popular with many hedge fund managers. Carry traders would use GBP as the lending currency taking advantage of the high interest rates and would go long against USD, JPY and CHF.
The BOE was forced to lower the interest rates to cope with the present financial crisis. The present global financial crisis has taken a heavy toll on the British Banks as well. There have been a number of high profile bankruptcies. UK Treasury had to intervene heavily in the market by pumping money into a number of failing banks in order to stabilize the financial markets.
Interest rate differentials between UK gilts/US Treasuries is a barometer for GBP/USD flows and UK gilts/German Bunds is a barometer for EUR/GBP flow. These interest rate differentials are widely watched by the professional forex traders to judge where the money will flow between US, UK and EU. Interest rates have been lowered. An exodus of carry traders took place that increased volatility in GBP with the lowering of the interest rates.
Will UK join EMU? This is an important question that still can determine the long term fundamentals of GBP. Indications on adopting the Euro usually put negative pressure on GBP while further opposition to Euro boosts GBP. The three month eurosterling futures reflect market expectations on UK interest rates three months into the future and can help predict fluctuations of GBP/USD.
GBP/USD currency pair tends to be more sensitive to the developments in the US economy. GBP/USD currency pair is more liquid than EUR/USD pair. However, EUR/GBP is the leading gauge for GBP strength. EUR/GBP is a more pure fundamental pound trade as EU is the UK primary trading and investment partner. GBP has positive correlation with the energy prices. You must keep these facts in mind while determining your bias for GBP as a currency trader.
London is still the forex center of the world. New York comes after London in the daily market turnover in forex. The main reasons that London has a higher percentage of trade is that it has always been a financial center and also because of time zones. The London market starts between 7am and 8am, which is the end of the trading day for Asia. Just as the Banks in London are beginning to open at 8am they can deal with other traders in Tokyo, Hong Kong or Singapore whose trading day is just coming to a close. During the later part of the trading day in London, the US market opens up and so catches a healthy portion of that market as well. London Stock Exchange is still the second most important stock exchange in the world after the New York Stock Exchange. The British capital market systems are one of the most developed in the world and as a result finance and banking has become a strong contributor to the GDP.
UK has large reserves of oil and gas in its North Sea. Offshore drilling has made the energy production industry account for 10% of GDP which is one of the highest shares of any industrialized nation. UK is the largest producer and exporter of natural gas to EU although majority of UK GDP is from services.
Trade deficit is an important economic indicator for determining the strength or weakness of a currency. Overall, UK is a net importer of goods with a consistent trade deficit. Increases in energy prices such as oil will significantly benefit the large number of UK oil exporters. This is important for forex traders as energy prices are positively correlated with GBP.
The two main trading partners for UK are the EU and the US. The United States on an individual basis still remains UK’s largest trading partner. However, the largest trading partner of UK is the EU. Trade between UK and EU accounts for almost 50% of UK imports and exports activities!
Trade surplus or the trade deficit is determined by the difference between the exports and the imports of a particular country. The leading import sources for UK are France, United States, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The leading exports markets for UK exporters are the France, Germany, Ireland, United States and the Netherlands.
UK had refused to accept Euro when it was introduced keeping the option open to adopt it in the distant future. UK had rejected adopting Euro as its currency in June 2003.The possibility of Euro adoption will still be in the backs of minds of GBP traders for many years to come. Now, it will have significant ramifications for its economy if UK decides to join European Monetary Union (EMU).
One of the primary arguments used against adopting the Euro is that UK has sound macroeconomic policies that have worked very well for the country. The most important of these ramifications is the adjustment of UK interest rate with the Eurozone interest rate in case UK decides to join EMU.
Right now Brits are not in favor of a Euro entry. There are many arguments in favor of Euro entry and many against.UK is a highly political country with government officials highly concerned about the voter approval ratings. The voter opinion can change overtime. However, the likelihood of EMU entry will decline if the voters do not support Euro entry.
Bank of England:
The monetary policy of UK is under the control of The Bank of England (BOE). BOE is the UK’s central bank. BOE is one of the oldest central banks in the world. The Monetary Policy Committee is the nine member committee that sets the monetary policy for UK. The committee was granted operational independence in 1997. It consists of a governor, two deputy governor, two executive directors of the central bank and four outside experts.
Controlling inflation is the primary responsibility of almost all the central banks in the world. Right now the global economy is in recession and there is a danger of deflation instead of inflation. This is also the job of the central bank to control deflation as deflation can erode the value of assets. In UK, the Chancellor of the Exchequer still determines the inflation target for the economy. The monetary policy is dictated by the inflation target set by the Treasury Chancellor despite the independence of the Bank of England (BOE). BOE has the power to change interest rates to levels that it believes will allow it to meet this target.
You must have heard about George Soros who is famously known as the, “Man who had broken the Bank of England.” How did he form his opinion about the inability of Great Britain to say within the EMU in the early part of 1990s? By watching the policy statements of MPC! MPC meetings are held on a monthly basis and are closely followed by changes in the monetary policy including changes in the interest rates. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings are closely followed by the professional forex traders all over the world as GBP is a highly popular currency among the traders.
Now closely following what happens before and after these meeting is the job of many professional forex traders who trade GBP heavily. They can’t risk the chance of being taken by sudden surprises. Before each meeting, the market guesses the likely outcome. After each MPC meeting, MPC issues statements. These statements are compared with the expectations the market had. Any deviation is the cause of major volatility in the pairs involving GBP. These statements are very important for GBP traders. A Quarterly Inflation Report detailing the MPC’s forecasts for the next two years of growth and inflation and its justification for its policy movements is also published.
BOE issues a number of more reports that are frequently used by market analyst to form their bias about GBP. The Quarterly Bulletin is another publication. It provides information for the past monetary policy movements and analysis of international economic scene and its impact on the British economy. All of these reports are highly informative for professional forex traders who trade GBP heavily.
Bank repo rate is the overnight lending rate that the banks charge each other. Bank repo rate is the key rate used in the monetary policy to achieve the Treasury’s target inflation rate. The main policy tools used by MPC and BOE are the Bank Repo Rate and the Open Market Operations.
Bank repo rate is the short term interest rate that eventually sets in motions changes in the other short term and long term interest rates in the market. However, there is always a time lag between the policy announcement and the anticipated change in the market interest rates. It maybe a few months to a year! Changes to the bank repo rate affect the commercial banks interest rates for its savers and borrowers. Bank repo rate is set by the BOE for its own operations in the market such as the short term lending activities.
When the economy is overheating, the central bank tries to cool it down by increasing the interest rte. An increase in the Bank Repo Rate means BOE wants to curb the inflation. A When the economy slumps into a recession just like what has happened currently, the central banks will try to lower interest rates to promote more economic activity so that the economy starts expanding again. Decrease in the interest rate would be to stimulate growth and expansion. Changes in the bank repo rate changes the commercial interest rates. In turn these commercial interest rates will affect spending and output in the economy and eventually the costs and prices.
Open market operations means buying or selling of government securities in the open market. Open market operations are done by the BOE to achieve its targeted bank rep rate. While assuring adequate liquidity in the market and continued stability in the banking system, the goal of the open market operations is to implement the changes in the bank repo rate.
The present financial crisis has been very severe. It started in the US sub-prime markets but eventually UK economy also suffered tremendously from it. Many UK banks had heavily invested in the US mortgage securities. Now it just shows how the individual economies are interlinked in this global economy now. Both the bank repo rate and the open market operations are used by the BOE to achieve its broad monetary policy objective. The three main objective of the BOE are to maintain the stability of the financial system, maintain the integrity and value of GBP and seeking to ensure the effectiveness of the UK financial services. These objectives are very important for the BOE to maintain in the present global financial crisis.
The United Kingdom is a pivotal nation because it bridges the economical, geographical, and ideological divide between the United States and Europe. The monetary policy objectives are met primarily through the open market operations. In order to ensure liquidity in the economy, BOE daily conducts open market operations to buy or sell short term fixed income government instruments. BOE can conduct additional overnight operations as well if this is not sufficient to meet the liquidity needs.
This is a globalized economy. Disturbances that start from outside can quickly become a headache for the Central Banks somewhere else. Oil prices jumped skyward in the early part of 2008. The GBP can be affected more directly by oil prices than other currencies as the United Kingdom is an oil producer. However, the relationship between oil and the GBP is fading because production in the United Kingdom’s North Sea oil fields is steadily decreasing.
UK is the bridge between US and EU. UK tends to share a more common set of views with the United States. In the present financial crisis, both the US and UK government had worked closely to avoid a meltdown in the capital markets. Economically, the United Kingdom is more free-market oriented than Europe. However at the same time, given its history and its geography, the United Kingdom can’t totally disassociate itself from Europe. The upshot is a currency that is affected by politics at home and on the two continents to which its destiny is so closely related.
6% of the all the global currency trading involves GBP as either the base or counter currency. The GBP/USD is one of the most liquid currency pairs in the world. The British Pound GBP is active against the dollar and the euro, offering good opportunities to trade both pairs (GBP/USD and USD/GBP).
The recent Financial Service Act has made the London capital markets one of the most efficient in the world. US capital markets still have oversight and regulatory confusions. This makes London an important destination for many foreign investors. One of the reasons for GBP liquidity is the country’s highly developed capital markets. GBP is also in the four most traded major currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF in the world.
Many hedge funds are located in London. UK is an important foreign investment destination. Many foreign investors seeking to diversify their investment other than the United States send their funds to the UK. Foreigner investors need to convert their local currency into GBP in order to create these investments.
A few years ago, GBP had one of the highest interest rates in the developed countries. Although Australia and New Zealand had still higher interest rates but their financial markets are not as well developed as UK. GBP was full of speculators one to two years back.
Carry trading is a long term fundamental trading strategy that takes advantage of the interest rate differentials between the two currencies as well as price appreciation in the currency pair. Carry trading was popular with many hedge fund managers. Carry traders would use GBP as the lending currency taking advantage of the high interest rates and would go long against USD, JPY and CHF.
The BOE was forced to lower the interest rates to cope with the present financial crisis. The present global financial crisis has taken a heavy toll on the British Banks as well. There have been a number of high profile bankruptcies. UK Treasury had to intervene heavily in the market by pumping money into a number of failing banks in order to stabilize the financial markets.
Interest rate differentials between UK gilts/US Treasuries is a barometer for GBP/USD flows and UK gilts/German Bunds is a barometer for EUR/GBP flow. These interest rate differentials are widely watched by the professional forex traders to judge where the money will flow between US, UK and EU. Interest rates have been lowered. An exodus of carry traders took place that increased volatility in GBP with the lowering of the interest rates.
Will UK join EMU? This is an important question that still can determine the long term fundamentals of GBP. Indications on adopting the Euro usually put negative pressure on GBP while further opposition to Euro boosts GBP. The three month eurosterling futures reflect market expectations on UK interest rates three months into the future and can help predict fluctuations of GBP/USD.
GBP/USD currency pair tends to be more sensitive to the developments in the US economy. GBP/USD currency pair is more liquid than EUR/USD pair. However, EUR/GBP is the leading gauge for GBP strength. EUR/GBP is a more pure fundamental pound trade as EU is the UK primary trading and investment partner. GBP has positive correlation with the energy prices. You must keep these facts in mind while determining your bias for GBP as a currency trader.
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